Thursday, November 6, 2008

A stock market stabilization fund remains in the doldrums out how?

Recently, A-share market remains in the doldrums, despite the recent stock market to stabilize the external rebound, the Hong Kong stock market has good performance, but the A-share market is still no improvement, or do not follow up with the growing phenomenon. Stabilization Fund of the great care must be taken out, or is likely to aggravate the volatility of the market, slow out of the market at the bottom of the time, even in addition to stabilize the market can not achieve the purpose, so that the stabilization fund will be scarred.

Recently, A-share market remains in the doldrums, despite the recent stock market to stabilize the external rebound, the Hong Kong stock market has good performance, but the A-share market is still no improvement, or do not follow up with the growing phenomenon. In view of this, some market experts and scholars in the industry and senior government intervene in the stock market increasingly strong voice, and the stabilization fund was seen as a magic weapon for the government to save the city of weapon. But after the stabilization fund can really smoothing out market volatility, so that no A-share market staged large counter to it?

The so-called stabilization fund, also known as intervention funds, the Government refers to the adoption of specific statutory body in order to create the fund. Sound stabilization fund out of the irrational in the current state of the A-share market should be able to play a good effect, but not necessarily the case.

It was suggested that the country's foreign exchange reserves set aside 100,000,000,000 U.S. dollars to establish stabilization fund, which is China's huge foreign exchange reserves is not impossible. Assuming the introduction of stabilization fund, or buy blue-chip heavyweights, this led the market upward bounce is normal, this result appeared to be happy. But the problem is that after the stabilization fund how to do? State funding is limited, it is clear stabilization fund has been impossible to buy or hold stocks, and also the establishment of the stabilization fund is incompatible with the original intention. However, if the stabilization fund out of stock, out of this position will no doubt be a rebound in the end, and will be a high degree of market constraints of resistance. This is A-share market is by no means a good thing. Moreover, the size of the non-existence of the stabilization fund also had to consider before the launch. Stabilization fund into the market after the stock market will undoubtedly warmer to the size of the reduction of non-greater power. Let us put aside the size of the non-heavy sell-off would hedge the stock market stabilization fund after the momentum brought about by the rise, but we have to ask, is to use the money to feed the country's large and small non?

Although the stabilization fund has not issued, but we can sell the company Huijin earlier in the secondary market to buy their own work, such as the construction of three state-owned bank shares to imagine the situation stabilization fund may be introduced later. If the bank in the stock market as a plate, then Huijin also can be seen as a "stabilization fund." Let us take a look at this "stabilization fund" introduced after the Bank of plate movements. There is no denying that Huijin's holdings, the bank board has undergone tremendous rise, but the rebound only lasted a few days, and in late October the market is more shocking. Huijin's holdings compared to the three banks, the stabilization fund will be the face of adverse circumstances more clearly, the prospects for stabilization fund is indeed a cause for concern.

Therefore, the stabilization fund the great care must be taken out, or is likely to aggravate the volatility of the market, slow out of the market at the bottom of the time, even in addition to stabilize the market can not achieve the purpose, so that the stabilization fund will be scarred. At present, the key lies in the adoption of macro-control to ensure that our macro-economy stable and rapid development, making the overall profitability of listed companies improved in order to reverse the current market of the future performance of listed companies is expected to pessimism. At the same time, the stock market to strengthen the system and improve the market system as a whole, so that more people will be willing to put money into the stock market, in such circumstances, introduction of stabilization fund in order to truly play its "skillfully deflected the question". Otherwise, introduced a stabilization fund and how well?

Invisible "security interest" broken wings torture of bank credit risk products

In early due to hold a Miss Liu CITIC Trust Bank loan products, "winning" the year of maturity yield 4.66 percent and 4.92 percent (subscription 500,000 and above), and not at the time of purchase Is expected to yield 4.85 percent and 5.11 percent (subscription 500,000 and above). "We have developed a floating rate cut after the terms of income, meaning that investors will return as the central bank's benchmark lending rate fluctuations and changes.

"Credit product yield to maturity of the discount!"

In early due to hold a Miss Liu CITIC Trust Bank loan products, "winning" the year of maturity yield 4.66 percent and 4.92 percent (subscription 500,000 and above), and not at the time of the purchase is expected to yield 4.85% and 5.11% (subscription 500,000 and above). At this point, have previously been "invisible" security interest of the security wings of the card products turning point.

The popular these days, "security interest" selling point

Credit products relative to the instrument, currency or bond-type sound-yield products are more obvious advantages, and as a result of corporate loans or relevant government departments or large-scale enterprise security, or belonging to the bank's asset quality. Although the credit insurance products are non-floating of the proceeds of a class, but the industry has long been regarded as its "capital preservation security interest" products, it is relative to the structural factor of safety products to more than one.

Xinancaitai trust and financial management of the Institute of relevant data show that each year to commercial banks to issue credit products issued by as much as 65% of the total, even if there were among the products on the credit impact of the implementation of monetary policy, which may well be Stop the speculation, but it does not stop the momentum of rapid distribution and investors sought after.

However, in September and into October, the two have been cut directly to suppress the yield of such products, combined with the financial turmoil on corporate credit invisible derogatory, credit products of a gradual slowdown issue. Reporters learned that this type of product to cut interest rates twice in the following general decline in the average income than the interest rate adjustment before the earnings decline in more than 0.2 percentage points. For example, China Merchants Bank was issued a "move into the silver treasure" of credit assets, 546 on a product for the 3.6 percent rate of return, not to issue a month ago, but the 515 gives 4.00 percent of annual revenue Rate.

Income discount the risk of hidden tips

"There is no denying that the other banks of similar products that may have occurred previously in similar circumstances, but the terms of the potential risks investors have not been found, even the bank itself did not pay special attention to." Xinancaida trust and financial management study The researcher Yang Chao said.

Reporters look at the detail of the CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank and Bank of Beijing, and other similar products in the three banks of the statement, they found that the risk related to the true extent of the tips are not the same. CITIC Bank for the yield to maturity may be lower than expected did not separate, but earnings estimates mentioned in the "investment products if the borrower's credit assets were not appointed time and manner (including but not limited to the repayment in advance or delay payment The situation) to repay the loan principal, interest and penalty interest (if any) and so on, product-year yield may be lower than expected "; and the Bank will move out one by one risk, although the rate of change in the product yield no clear impact, But for the early termination in accordance with the rate of return is still expected to yield calculation. The Bank of Beijing is that: "Interest Rate Risk: The customer may be lower than earnings to fixed deposits or other use of funds arising from the proceeds." Tips slightly less risk.

In addition, since the previous market-to-business credit risk to enhance the sense of crisis, this type of product in the October issue has been more restricted. It was from the China Construction Bank, ICBC and China Merchants Bank to open a few statistics show that in October the issue of credit products shrink the size of nearly half. In addition to the rate of return investors concerned about risk, we must also beware of its credit risk, the trust plans to pay close attention to the quality of corporate borrowing and repayment ability.

Contemplating changes to make a living out of the road

Due to the frequent moves the central bank, cut open the channels so that a number of high-end customers are also aimed at higher income credit products, can be seen in the market or banks in the near future for one of the major share.

"We have developed a floating rate cut after the terms of income, meaning that investors will return as the central bank's benchmark lending rate fluctuations and changes." Hangzhou branch of China Merchants Bank gold sunflower financial management, Senior Manager Wang told reporters. At present, the market appears to cut interest rates to deal with the two mainstream methods for the early termination of the issued and new product design floating provisions. If the borrower companies and banks that entered into floating-rate terms, so investors get due returns is bound to be adjusted; if it is fixed-rate terms of corporate borrowers to repay ahead of schedule, even if investors will not have an impact on earnings due .

At present, only the ICBC and China Merchants Bank for such products made floating provisions of the proceeds of the design of adjustment is expected in the near future will see other commercial banks to deal with changing innovations.

Jian Xiang Bank initiated the establishment of the first village bank

Hunan Province, the second pilot of the first new type of rural financial institutions - to build Taojiang letter banks be allowed to build towns and villages. This is the first company in Hunan Province by the major commercial banks - China Construction Bank Corp. as the main sponsor of the Bank towns and villages, but also China Construction Bank Limited was launched in the country to set up the first Bank towns and villages.

Hunan Banking Bureau of the first full year of experimental work of new institutions. Bank towns and villages across the province, following the first Xiangxiang City Bank towns and villages since opening in March, Taojiang, Qiyang pilot counties have all the preparations for the smooth progress and is expected to be opened during the year. As the first bank to launch the shares to the establishment of new institutions, the China Construction Bank to build Taojiang letter to the towns and villages, the lead bank to grant a high degree of attention and support. In order to use the main sponsor of the brand new institution to elevate its market visibility and credibility, China Construction Bank towns and villages letter to the building Taojiang 25,500,000 yuan of investment banking, and holding to take 51% of the holding pattern is the main sponsor, is conducive to effective prevention Moral hazard and to form a stable framework for corporate governance, the Bank towns and villages in order to ensure a smooth start to provide a strong support. Yuan Longping Agricultural vigorously the introduction of high-tech Co., Ltd., Yiyang Keming, and other well-known face of the agricultural industry and the concept of localization of the shareholders to enhance shareholder of the Bank towns and villages of concern and sense of responsibility. At the same time, China Construction Bank to actively explore investment and introducing an organic combination, give full play to the advantage of holding firms and professional management experience, the shareholders of Bank towns and villages in the choice of directors and executives selected, the system construction, technology support, personnel training Provide a great deal of support and assistance.

It is understood that the letter built Taojiang Bank towns and villages is expected to be listed on the official opening by the end of November, will be based on business-oriented county, "three rural", in line with the new agency to explore the characteristics of the business model, to support efforts to achieve the "three rural" and the business of sustainable development The effective combination, in order to stimulate the vitality of rural financial markets and promote local economic development and play an active role.

International oil prices fell Thursday close to 60 U.S. dollars a 19-month low

integrated power sources reported Thursday the international oil price fell 4.53 U.S. dollars, 60.77 U.S. dollars a barrel to hit a new low in 19 months. Europe and as a result of the Bank of England to cut interest rates sharply, as well as U.S. stocks plunged again in a row was reflected weakness in the global economy.

New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet December crude oil futures settled down 4.53 U.S. dollars to 60.77 U.S. dollars a barrel, or 6.9 percent, the highest since March 2007 the lowest settlement price level. ICE Futures Exchange, December Brent crude futures declined by 4.44 U.S. dollars to 57.43 U.S. dollars a barrel, or 7.2 percent.

It is reported that oil prices since July about 145 U.S. dollars a record high after nearly four months of decline in 60 U.S. dollars a barrel would be a "turning point." This round of the decline stems from the weakness of the U.S. economy and U.S. oil demand to shrink, and many market participants believe that the global financial crisis continue to spread the impact of the decline in oil prices has been close to the situation got out of hand.

Britain and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates Thursday showed that Europe's economic situation has deteriorated, which caused oil prices to pressure; at the same time to cut interest rates also push the euro fell sharply against the dollar, leading to dollar-denominated oil sales experience.

At present, the oil market is looking to move production of OPEC crude oil futures to bring support. OPEC agreed in October to reduce crude oil production 1,500,000 barrels per day, and will also meet again in December. Oil prices continued to fall, which some market participants believe that OPEC's production rate in October is too small, not enough to offset weak demand for petroleum oil prices dragged down.

December RBOB gasoline futures settled down 8.84 cents to 1.3360 U.S. dollars per gallon, or 6.2 percent. December heating oil futures fell 11.23 cents to 1.9424 U.S. dollars per gallon, or 5.5 percent.

Idle about four into Chinese aluminum production capacity of alumina


Following the announcement electrolytic aluminum output and 18% after the Chinese aluminum and alumina for the implementation of the production, the company disclosed today, has been idle for 38% of the alumina production capacity. China Aluminum announcement today that by electrolytic aluminum and alumina output prices low, since the end of October 2008, at a higher cost of the enterprise to reduce the alumina production. As of November 5, 2008, the company has been idle for alumina production capacity 4,110,000 tons / year, accounting for about 38% of the company's total production capacity. Central Plains branch of which 640,000 tons / year, 1,100,000 tons of Shanxi branch / year, the Shandong branch 1,170,000 tons / year, Henan Branch 1,200,000 tons / year. And on Oct. 23, the company announced another main product for electrolytic aluminum production, aluminum prices due to the rapid decline and weaker demand for aluminum, so the company plans to pay more to reduce the production of enterprises. And the output of electrolytic aluminum in the performance of the major companies in Shandong, Henan, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places of business or part of the production limit production, reduce the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 720,000 tons / year, accounting for about 18% of the total capacity of the company. Industry analysts have said that with the weakening demand for aluminum and aluminum prices decline, the Aluminum Company of the further deterioration of the overall level of profitability, most of the Aluminum Company of the existence of widespread losses. The reason why Chinese aluminum production of electrolytic aluminum products, is to control costs while the current stability in the domestic aluminum prices. Chinese aluminum production in the day after the announcement also said that the company may be based on market and corporate operations of further production cuts, the company was announced shortly after the production of alumina. Analysts said that prices of alumina, aluminum prices since September remained low, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy order in the global financial market turmoil, falling aluminum prices driven down prices of alumina, the producers price is upset. China Aluminum in the Oct. 27 release of the Quarterly Bulletin of the three data show that this year's third quarter net profit of more than 92% reduction over the same period last year, in addition to the cost of production rose more, the prices of products than the same period last year a relatively large The main reason is lower.

R & F Properties, or large-scale price reduction

Yesterday, R & F Properties announced that plans to issue 6,000,000,000 yuan of the total size of the time 5 to 10 years of bonds and notes for the repayment of bank loans, as well as a part of the operating funds. R & F Properties reporters to the Department of Public Affairs of the R & F Properties Miss Ye understand the reasons for issuing bonds, but the writing, has not yet been responded to.

Centaline Property (China) Liu Yuan, analysts believe that with the same period last year, large-scale real estate enterprises doubled the size of the universal, but through the capital market access into the capital, and only last year, a considerable; and sales than last year Decline, in which case, all developers are short of money, R & F is no exception.

Lack of money for a long time

As early as the beginning of this year, there are rumors that R & F is about to break the chain of funds. In November, speculation has turned into "R & F is about to collapse." The reason is that high R & F's balance sheet, a large number of this year due to credit and land to sell gold to pay.

According to the R & F Properties in the first half of the annual report, as of June 30, 2008, R & F Properties of the total bank borrowings of approximately 20.6 billion, due within one year 8,073,000,000 yuan for short-term borrowing and long-term loans to 12,516,000,000 yuan, assets Liabilities as high as 139.4 percent; R & F Properties are 8.8 billion of outstanding land payments, to pay 3.8 billion in the second half, but held only 1.9 billion in cash.

Due to the extremely tense capital, R & F Properties Lian Li, chairman of the Hong Kong media had said to be good this year, in an effort to sell and, if necessary, can even consider selling part of the medium and long-term operation of investment properties.

To address the lack of money, R & F has tremendous efforts for return of A shares. As early as in early 2007, Lian Li has time and again expressed hope that the return of A shares, and then in June to submit a return to the Shanghai Stock Exchange A share of the application, but as of yesterday, the return of R & F A shares were not successful.

Sales pressure

Capital market financing blocked at the same time, R & F Properties of the market also hit the rock, failed to bring Days sales outstanding. Earlier this year, R & F laid down 240 million sales goal. However, in the first half of the annual reports of R & F Properties in the 1 to June sales of 7.9 billion. Although the plan failed to meet half of the year sales, but at the time that Li Lian, has completed the sale of the established goals. This is because R & F in the second half of a large number of properties for sale to launch sales in the second half of the year is the sale of "decisive battle."

According to Centaline Property (China) research analyst Liu Yuan, R & F Properties in September sales of about 20 billion yuan, in October was 15 billion yuan. 8, 9 months of sales to less than 9, 10 months. If such a sales process to be completed throughout the year 24,000,000,000 yuan of sales targets, is unlikely almost.

Even so, R & F Properties has been no substantial price reduction. Liu Yuan told reporters in the R & F national average price for all items for sale is 9500 yuan / sq m, more stable price trend.

However, the price of a large-scale activities or far away. Yesterday, Kunshan Dianshan Lake River Bay R & F's sales force reporters to reveal their upcoming promotions. A5, A6 will be part of the single-family house to enjoy the preferential treatment of the original 11,000 yuan / sq m price will be reduced to 7,000 to 8,000 yuan / square meter.

The market lost a rebound in the doldrums Zaixian

A-share market Thursday afternoon to maintain the disadvantaged. Steel stocks, brokerage stocks such as Jedi rebound, but banking, petrochemical, coal, and so the decline does not change. SSE Composite Index 1717.72 points, down 2.44 percent; Shenzhengchengzhi 5720.55 points, or 2.48 percent.

Judging from the recent trend to see, A shares fell with no up with the more deep-rooted bad habits, yet to shake off the external constraints and the impact of the stock market. A U.S. stocks yesterday by the continuous rebound in the stock market and the external stimulus has been movement, but much lower than the peripheral or the stock market. U.S. stocks fell Thursday, A shares also opened sharply lower. Investors worried once again return to the economic level, following the pre-game outside the rebound to start the withdrawal of speculative buying, so that A-share market is facing downward pressure again.

Cement shares dropped Chonggao afternoon, despite the increase of national infrastructure to support good, but cement stocks are still up by a heavy sell-off Jiancang disk, but in the quiet cement stocks, shares of steel plate and the plate in the securities trading performance Active, so that the market has maintained a certain activity. Guangzhou Iron and Steel shut shares trading, up 7.72 percent Nanganggufen, the new Steel shares rose 6.34 percent. Steel plate over 80 Piaohong stock, plate or 1.65 percent. Today, there are media reports that damage to the Ministry of Commerce Industry Bureau of Investigation are Shandong, Hebei, and other research to a loss of the steel industry, the final report will be turned over to the relevant departments to form. This is a market expected to show the steel industry "rescue" forewarning. Prior to that, because of factors such as the deterioration of demand, steel prices falling profits, iron and steel stocks losing ground. According to statistics, up to yesterday's close, the two cities, "breaking the net shares" as many as 205, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index more than the minimum 998 points. Among them, broken into the net shares of steel stocks has been the hardest hit, as many as 27 units of less than 1 Shijing Shuai, the two cities account for two-thirds of the iron and steel stocks.

Rebound momentum of the market constraints will continue to be a lack of room for growth. First of all, the market is still a lack of effective leading hot spot. Valuation Department has the low performance of the financial services sector more actively yesterday, but the prospects for economic uncertainty in the industry determines the valuation does not have the potential to improve, market outlook continues to rebound pressure. Construction and building materials industry in the near future is also very active in the movement, however, a number of leading shares is no longer cheap, and its role in driving the market is also more limited.

Global financial markets, central banks in a timely and decisive intervention has been stabilized for the time being, but it is very difficult to determine the financial markets has been a real ride out the storm, and further, the financial crisis on the real economy is just beginning to drag. "De-leverage" to bring direct economic slowdown and the slowdown in demand in developed countries and emerging economies have to face the challenges of recession. These factors in the global financial markets to stabilize before the pick-up will take some time, I am afraid of the shock.